NATO of the east...

[StandingCow]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/csm/20051026/ts_csm/oalliance_1

oh my goodness.

[Somedude]

ingrates.

[Lord Kelvin]

Now this would make a good WaW scenario :p

[Seanobi]

In the words of Dane Cook, "Aw shit, good game America. We had some fun times, huh?"

[Modest Genius]

meh, hardly surprising. both are huge, authoritarian regimes which are moving away from communism, with large armies, strategic influence and shared goals. if anything, im surprised it hasnt happened already

[SOCOM-DELTA]

this can only end very badly.

-edit-

looks to me like the Red Menace is rearing its ugly head yet again.

[whuh?]

Now this would make a good WaW scenario :p

Exactly what I was thinking. Now that would be modern.

[Col.Kurtz]

it will fail.

[Seanobi]

it will fail.

And what do you base this assumpton upon? Why would it fail? We're talking about the world's next superpower, combined with a former superpower that is learning from the mistakes it made in the past, and a few of its former satellite states, This isn't something like Nauru and Micronesia joining together to take over the world.

[[Political] Slayer]

I guess the WAW motto really applies here :(

[Seanobi]

Slayer']I guess the WAW motto really applies here :(

"A Half-Life 2 modification?"

[StandingCow]

"A Half-Life 2 modification?"

WW3 is closer then you think...

LOL HL2 mod..

[GoatChomper]

Dire, dire things were predicted for the eastern Mediterranean when Libya and Syria formed their alliance in the Eighties.

Nothing came of it.

[Shinobi]

"A Half-Life 2 modification?"

LOL :D

[Seanobi]

Dire, dire things were predicted for the eastern Mediterranean when Libya and Syria formed their alliance in the Eighties.

Nothing came of it.

That's because they were Libya and Syria. They were rinkydink banana republics without any real military strength. We're talking about Russia and China here.

[GoatChomper]

That's because they were Libya and Syria. They were rinkydink banana republics without any real military strength.
Not so.....on a global scale their military prowess was near-negligible, but they were at the time the two regnant military powers of the eastern Mediterranean.

[Kak]

Russia and China could never cooperate enough for this to ammount to anything. Russia and China have a much better chance of going to war in the next 10 years than forming a huge alliance like this.

[StandingCow]

I don't know... they could suprise us.

Do they really have any other option? They will benifit better as one entity then seperate.

[SOCOM-DELTA]

which is probably the conclusion the two leaders came to. This is why, Kak, the two states' leaders are pictured shaking hands.

and yes, libya and syria were two rinkydinky banana republics. their power was great in their region, but they still had us to worry about, with interests in the region. russia and china, on the other hand, are more than capable of taking care of themselves as it stands; better equipped to do so when they rely on each other.

[StandingCow]

Its good for countries to keep one another in check... yes even america should be kept in check...

[SOCOM-DELTA]

you missed the point of SCO. it's not a watchdog group, it's a cooperative. they're working toward a common goal, whatever the hell that is (besides those cited in the article). besides, they ARE keeping us in check.

[StandingCow]

The goal is to be more competitive... Both Militarily and Finacially. Why else join forces? Its to survive and gain power.

if we were kept in check (in the other nation's eyes) we wouldn't have moved into iraq... correct?

[Kak]

Russia and China already are keeping us in check as it is, as well as keeping each other in check. The personal relationship between Putin and Jiabao or Jintao is nothing compared to the one between Putin and Bush, so you can't really use that as an example.

[StandingCow]

Russia can't keep anyone in check in its current state... China on the other hand probly could.. although not compared to the US...

[Kak]

What are you talking about? China can't project it's influence around the globe, Russia can. As of right now Russia is the stronger of the two.

[StandingCow]

Kak, I suggest you check this out: http://www.foreignaffairs.org/19950301faessay5026/benjamin-s-lambeth/russia-s-wounded-military.html

I also found many articles questioning the possibility of china as the next super power.

Where are you getting your "facts" from?

EDIT: another interesting site to compare military strengh:
http://www.militaryfactory.com/countries_comparison.asp

[Kak]

I get my facts from years of research, as this very topic is a very big interest of mine.

That article is from a while ago, Russia did terrible during the 1990s, after the collapse of the USSR, then got hot hard again during the 1998 financial crisis.

As far as the second article goes, those numbers have to do with the fact that China has over 1/6th of the worlds population living there. We're talking about throwing people across the border with Type 67s and in Type 59s.

It now has one of the faster growing economies in the world. We have to look at figures 2001 on up when dealing with Russia, a LOT has changed.

Russia can project its power globally, with its super aircraft carrier the Admiral Kuznetsov, Tu-160 Blackjacks, An-124s and An-225s, fleet of nuclear submarines, as well as highly advanced ground military equipment. The only place the Chinese can match the Russian Federation is in its ground force, which is not nearly as advanced as Russias but would easily overpower it innitially due to "zerg rush" tactics. Naval and air battles would be no contest.

Let's not forget Russia has the biggest stockpile on nuclear weapons in the world, enough to destroy all of mankind several times over. China has at most 100 nuclear weapons that can reach the United States, Russia has many thousands. The best Chinese nuclear missile can't keep up with the advanced capabilities of an SS-27 Topol-M.

I would love to talk more about this with you, irc? :D

[StandingCow]

From 2001... Kak this is all Im seeing is cutbacks in the russian military... and china getting stronger, I cannot find anything to the contrary.. perhaps you can?

http://www.checkpoint-online.ch/CheckPoint/J1/J1-0001-RussianMilitaryExercises.html

Also the amount of people china has is.. well impressive. Im not necessarly talking about nukes, because if any country used nukes.. well the US for one would most likly attack as well as other nations...

EDIT: I will be on IRC tonight, Im at work right now.

[Kak]

The Russian military is much weaker than it was when it was the Red Army, and China's military grows stronger every day.

But as of right now, isn't technological parity between the two forces. But while the advanced military is in Russias favor, the numbers are in Chinas favor.

The most probable scenario is this, China invaded Russia, sending many millions of troops into Siberia quickly conquering it, then start heading west towards Moscow.

Recently China has now started fielding great equipment, like the Type 98 and QBZ-95 and J-10, but we're still looking at the bulk of their troops using Type 56s, driving Type 59s, and flying J-7s.

They would be stopped at the European part of Russia by the superiorly equipted, trained, and combat experienced troops.

But that's as far as Chinese success would go. Russia will send her fleet over to Chinas coasts, plowing the way with their much superior navy with the Admiral Kuznetsov as the flagship. The Chinese navy is a joke.

And Russia will have huge success in the sky as well sending MiG-29SMTs and Su-27s for air superiority as well as having Tu-95 and Tu-22Ms bombing enemy positions while Tu-160s fly over Bejing and bomb the hell out of it. China couldn't even dream of doing the same with Russian Tunguskas deployed to stop most threats complimented by the S-400 surface to air missile system, unrivaled in the entire world.

I'm willing to talk to you more on IRC about this if you can give me specific topics where you think China has an advantage over Russia, but for right now I'm going to stop with that and go take a dump.

Much <3 :)

[StandingCow]

Well its obvious you know more on the topic then I do, I was just going by stats. I did notice even in the 1990s stats I had posted that russia did have more armor/machinery...

China just has so many damn people.

Enjoy your dump :D

[Kak]

keke ^__^

[Modest Genius]

two points guys

1. this is a mutual assistance treaty. this it not some offensive agreement, or a statement of intent, or any direct challenge to any other nation. so stop trying to cast it that way

2. as a measure of a nations power, military might is a useful but not exclusive factor. just because china has the worlds largest military does not make it the worlds preemptive power, in absolute or even military terms. there are far more factors to consider than the army.

[kreket]

You know, I clicked that link thinking it'd be something about Eastern European NATO forces. Some difference!

I don't see China cooperating more closely with Russia than with Japan after the "Asian Market" deals. There is also some ideological difference between China and Russia, from yesterdays variants of communism and todays dictatorships and semidemocracy.

I'm sitting here doing a task on "global trade" in the ancient world. According to this paper, China literally powered global trade artificially by moving it's currency from paper into silver - stimulating a demand for silver in China and an incentive for the Europeans to go out elsewhere in the world and get it in exchange for fine chinese and eastern porcelain, spices and silks. Kinda puts todays access of cheap labour in China in a perspective.

Mysterious, ominous voice: The spice must flow!

[SOCOM-DELTA]

I get my facts from years of research, as this very topic is a very big interest of mine.

That article is from a while ago, Russia did terrible during the 1990s, after the collapse of the USSR, then got hot hard again during the 1998 financial crisis.

As far as the second article goes, those numbers have to do with the fact that China has over 1/6th of the worlds population living there. We're talking about throwing people across the border with Type 67s and in Type 59s.

It now has one of the faster growing economies in the world. We have to look at figures 2001 on up when dealing with Russia, a LOT has changed.

Russia can project its power globally, with its super aircraft carrier the Admiral Kuznetsov, Tu-160 Blackjacks, An-124s and An-225s, fleet of nuclear submarines, as well as highly advanced ground military equipment. The only place the Chinese can match the Russian Federation is in its ground force, which is not nearly as advanced as Russias but would easily overpower it innitially due to "zerg rush" tactics. Naval and air battles would be no contest.

Let's not forget Russia has the biggest stockpile on nuclear weapons in the world, enough to destroy all of mankind several times over. China has at most 100 nuclear weapons that can reach the United States, Russia has many thousands. The best Chinese nuclear missile can't keep up with the advanced capabilities of an SS-27 Topol-M.

I would love to talk more about this with you, irc? :D


the russians don't have any blackjacks, and don't have any an-225s yet. as I recall, somebody posted a link to an article about the c-5 (it was all about old a/c or smt, might have been on incursion forums), and the site listed the an-225 and that there were no buyers for it yet.

also, the blackjacks were too costly at the time for the russians to maintain a fleet of them. as far as their fleet of nuclear submarines... you mean like the one that sank off the cost of kamchatka earlier this year, the old Cold-war era models that are falling apart?

[Milkman Dan]

the russians don't have any blackjacks, and don't have any an-225s yet. as I recall, somebody posted a link to an article about the c-5 (it was all about old a/c or smt, might have been on incursion forums), and the site listed the an-225 and that there were no buyers for it yet.
This is starting to become a common occurence with you; correcting your facts/corrections, that is.

From many sources I've read, Russia does have Tu-160's. One webpage says they have 14, and are supposed to be getting two more. Global Security states they have 15. Both say they're in the 37th Strategic Air Army.

[Kak]

Socom buddy, you need to check your sources about some of these things, or talk to me on IRC about it :o

[marty]

Why do you call the Kuznetzov a "Super Aircraft Carrier"?

China has her sister ship, btw.

If there are only 14 (with 2 more incomin) Tu-160's, they might as well not even exist

[StandingCow]

two points guys

1. this is a mutual assistance treaty. this it not some offensive agreement, or a statement of intent, or any direct challenge to any other nation. so stop trying to cast it that way

2. as a measure of a nations power, military might is a useful but not exclusive factor. just because china has the worlds largest military does not make it the worlds preemptive power, in absolute or even military terms. there are far more factors to consider than the army.

1. I never said it was an offensive agreement. I was discussing the possibility of that though. Im not trying to cast anything in any way.

2. As kak pointed out, they may have alot of enlisted people, but they dont have the airpower or armor of other countries.

[Locke]

it will fail.

i second that.

[furious_geOrge]

i dunno if this is relevant, but i think it's interesting that part of america's advantage in the earlier wars was its ability to convert its manufacturing capacity from commercial to military. nowadays, most of the manufacturing capacity in the world is in china.

[marty]

I wonder how easy it would be to bring those abandoned factories in the steel belt back online if a WW2-type of mobilization ever had to happen again.

Thank God I don't see a fight with China likely. That would be so inconvenient.

[Kak]

Why do you call the Kuznetzov a "Super Aircraft Carrier"?

China has her sister ship, btw.

If there are only 14 (with 2 more incomin) Tu-160's, they might as well not even exist
It's the most heavily armed warship in the world.

Yes the Varyag is in China's possetion, not like it's usable: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet_aircraft_carrier_Varyag

Dude, 16 is more than enough, especially considering that China doesn't have any means of countering it. They might as well not exist? There's only 21 B2 Spirit stealth bombers, and we all care about those :o

[marty]

It's the most heavily armed warship in the world.

Yes the Varyag is in China's possetion, not like it's usable: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet_aircraft_carrier_Varyag

Dude, 16 is more than enough, especially considering that China doesn't have any means of countering it. They might as well not exist? There's only 21 B2 Spirit stealth bombers, and we all care about those :o
$1 Billion dollar stealth bombers that can probably take the place of ten TU-160's.

I'm pretty sure China has an air defense network, mobile theater air defense, and interceptors :o

[Kak]

After the B2 the Tu-160 is the best strategic bomber around, and the Chinese air defense network is not very well equipped to handle long range super sonic strategic bombers, and they don't have very capable interceptors.

[Chris R]

Iran's gonna join? Hmm, maybe that's why the Iranian president got up on a soap box screaming that Israel needs to be whiped off the map.

[GrosPoisson]

Iran's gonna join? Hmm, maybe that's why the Iranian president got up on a soap box screaming that Israel needs to be whiped off the map.

I sincerely hope that China and Russia won't dumb enough to add Iran, Pakistan, or India. That's just asking for trouble.

Actually, I take that back with a qualification. It might, might be a good thing if they were to accept Pakistan and India. Maybe they could exercise some leverage and get them to stop bickering all the time.

Hell, who am I kidding.

[GoatChomper]

It's the most heavily armed warship in the world.
And it lacks for sustainability.....once its launchers empty their ready loads, that's pretty much it until it can resupply.
Iran's gonna join? Hmm, maybe that's why the Iranian president got up on a soap box screaming that Israel needs to be whiped off the map.
Achmadinejad would have gotten around to that eventually no matter what.....he's catering to his constituency.

Hilariously, I recall OtakuMark a few months ago calling him a moderate.

[SWATJester_os]

Russia and China could never cooperate enough for this to ammount to anything. Russia and China have a much better chance of going to war in the next 10 years than forming a huge alliance like this.

Yeah.

And it lacks for sustainability.....once its launchers empty their ready loads, that's pretty much it until it can resupply.

Achmadinejad would have gotten around to that eventually no matter what.....he's catering to his constituency.

Hilariously, I recall OtakuMark a few months ago calling him a moderate.


Heh I remember that.


Kak the real question is, can China outbuy russia?

[Kak]

Not likely, Russia's steady economic growth and China's interest in developing indiginous military technology and cutting military reliance on Russia makes this less likely every day. There is a mutual need for each other with regards to oil though, with Russia having plenty of oil, and China having plenty of money. There is a chance of Chinese immigrants might eventually take over Siberia from the inside ;).

Russia has a very good partnership with India going on, India is also helping fund Russia's new PAKFA 5th generation aircraft, and Russia has made and is continueing to make the Indian military one of the most formidable in the region.

Regardless of the heavy investment and funding of Russia, no country can simply buy it out, and I am confident that Russia will be completely stable and be clearly superior to China in regards to military, in the coming years.

[nyarlathotep]

And it lacks for sustainability.....once its launchers empty their ready loads, that's pretty much it until it can resupply.



I would think the history of the owner in blue water as well as fleet carrier actions are the ultimate factors in just how lethal that ship would be. In the case of Russia and China, neither of them have the experience to use it in any kind of threatening manner.

Nah...boomers plus shore and aircraft based anti-ship missles are our biggest concern.

[Kak]

What don't they have experience with? Engaging in naval warfare? Our current naval vessels don't have experience with that either. It's got plenty of weapons, the most on any ship, to deal with any threat, as well as Su-33's incase air support from the land isn't available. Remember, the carrier isn't designed to be used the same way ours are.

China is a different story, their navy isn't in very good shape, with no carrier and none being built. If the Chinese navy stays in the shape it is in it could soon be surpassed as the second most powerful in the region by India, especially in 2008 when India finishes revamping the Gorshkov.

[marty]

That's the problem with Russian aircraft carriers... They're really hybrids. The Russkies put together an inefficient guided missile cruiser with a pathetically small air component.

Russia throughout it's history has always held on to the pretense that it was some sort of Naval power... I honestly can't see it maintaining it's naval superiority over China or India in the coming years.

And Kak, I think he was referring to a modern Naval tradition when he said "experience".

[Kak]

I disagree, but I think you know that ;)

[FaKToR]

How many naval battles has Russia had in recent years (like the last century) that they've won?

[Kak]

There was some action during World War 2, but the last time Russia fought an enemy with a real navy besides then was 100 years ago fighting Japan, and they got their asses kicked.

Was that an actual question that you didn't know and wanted an answer so you could no, or was that something you asked as more of a "yeah that's what I thought, bitch".

[FaKToR]

The latter.

[Enders]

Wasn't the Warsaw pact this very idea?
Or is the Warsaw pact not an actual thing and something I picked up from OFP

[Chris R]

Wasn't the Warsaw pact this very idea?
Or is the Warsaw pact not an actual thing and something I picked up from OFP
The Warsaw pack was Russia's response to NATO in the 1980's, except it was Russia and it's satellite countries, if I recall right.

[Kak]

The latter.
I was hoping you could be above that :rolleyes:

And Chris and Caste: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Warsaw_pact

[Glock23]

I was hoping you could be above that :rolleyes:

And Chris and Caste: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Warsaw_pact
I wouldn't take it as an insult; look at it as pointing out the somewhat obvious fact that Russia's naval forces haven't proven themselves worthy of being a credible world threat. Various foul-ups over time, such as the K-19 disaster and the Kursk loss have proven that while they may be able to field good equipment and men, they sure don't know how to not screw up. Since China, as you claim, has 0 navy worth mentioning, and as is discerned, Russia has a less-than-formidable naval force, it's hard to imagine that together these two nations will form a fighting element the likes of which to rival the US's current first-place position.

Besides, Russia and China have had a few things to quibble over in their relations over time. Who says they will actually cooperate on anything worth mentioning?

Personally, I think that Russia is hurrying to get on board the China-train before it leaves the station of second-world status and enters first-world territory, or even becomes the unthinkable: toppler of the current hegemon.

[Capt. Planet]

I seem to recall a new Chinese Cruiser that was based off of our Aegis Cruisers. I may be wrong though.

What would happen if China thought it would test the water and say.... seize Taiwan? Would Russia sit back and watch? Would the US? If Russia helped China, what would the US do, etc.

I've always thought the Chinese thought themselves clever, and thought us weak. I doubt they would expect a retaliation, other than through official channels (passing a statement that says we don't like it very much or other such bullshido.) Although I don't think anyone in Russia is stupid enough to do anything rash by themselves, they may think that China will be enough to keep America off their back so they can try something they've always wanted to do. (Hypothetical "something", I don't even have any thoughts as to what it could be, I just see this whole situation blowing up in everyone's faces)

[marty]

I seem to recall a new Chinese Cruiser that was based off of our Aegis Cruisers. I may be wrong though. HAH. Nothing. NOTHING can compete with the SPY-1. The Chinese would be bullshitting if they said they had something near in capabilities as one of our AEGIS systems.

What would happen if China thought it would test the water and say.... seize Taiwan? Would Russia sit back and watch? Would the US? If Russia helped China, what would the US do, etc. Seizing Taiwan, if it were possible for the mainland Chinese, would be suicide... Just because Russia signed a pact doesn't mean they would want to be associated with an agressive act like that.

I've always thought the Chinese thought themselves clever, and thought us weak.The Chinese aren't stupidly blind (Have you been reading a certain Tom Clancy novel? ;))

I doubt they would expect a retaliation, other than through official channels (passing a statement that says we don't like it very much or other such bullshido.)Same as above. The Chinese are more in tune with reality than you think.

Although I don't think anyone in Russia is stupid enough to do anything rash by themselves, they may think that China will be enough to keep America off their back so they can try something they've always wanted to do. (Hypothetical "something", I don't even have any thoughts as to what it could be, I just see this whole situation blowing up in everyone's faces)Doubtful

[Modest Genius]

if they thought they could get away with taking taiwan, they would have done it decades ago. its not as if it would be any great difficulty for the worlds largest army.

[Glock23]

if they thought they could get away with taking taiwan, they would have done it decades ago. its not as if it would be any great difficulty for the worlds largest army.
Are they going to swim across to the island?

[Modest Genius]

they have this thing called a navy. and its well within flying distance too.

and if the US didnt come to the aid of the Taiwanese, theyd win easily

[marty]

they have this thing called a navy. and its well within flying distance too.

and if the US didnt come to the aid of the Taiwanese, theyd win easily
The Chinese Navy doesn't have the amphibious assets to take Taiwan.

In fact, the Republic of China's navy is better capable of invading the mainland than the People Liberation Army Navy can invade Taiwan.